The prolonged increase in base metals prices made more and more victims. Last, the Tyco whose Executive Director, Ed Breen, American comes to alert analysts that its forecasts of results are revised downwards for a single reason: copper, that old record after record. Three months of his contract negotiated on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was moving and new upward of 8,000 dollars per tonne. Zinc continues, however, his race to 3,500 dollars per tonne. Yesterday, aluminum touched for the first time since June 1988 the $ 3,000 per tonne while nickel camped around 20,000 dollars per tonne.
The market is closely following the copper, renowned for its great capacity of anticipation of the industrial and motor cycle base metals all proven. The world leader in the extractive sector, the Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton, has given this light on the evolution of EC market: John Crofts, head of marketing for base metals, has indicated that the fundamentals of the copper tended to a supply deficit. And this despite the consensus that, in the wake of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), yet table on a surplus of production. But expectations are changing rapidly. Two independent bodies of research, Brook Hunt and Bloomsbury Mineral Economics (BME), consider that the refined copper market will be deficit until next year. BME sales failure at 180.000 tonnes in 2006 and 108,000 tons in 2007. Its experts predict a return to surpluses of 295.000 tons in 2008.
The deficit will continue throughout this year in the concentrated copper the fact such as the increase in the capacity of refining of China and in the cathodes. Price prospects are "very positive, said the head of BHP Billiton.". "In view of the large lack of elasticity of demand of red metal, should be that prices soar to very high levels before starting the application in the short term, encouraging companies consuming to melt their stocks of metal". However, for him, "is not a viable perspective." The leader of the mining company focused on repeated copper production interruptions. Interruptions which, in his view, were unlikely to fade. Diego Hernandez, the pattern of the BHP Billiton base metals activities, completed the table of the offer with emphasis on the fact that exploration must move towards "geographic areas to the most important countries risks."
Fear of nationalization
Several Andean countries are placed under close observation. Mining groups fear of nationalization of assets or, more probably, significant increases in taxes. The general context of the red metal is no stranger to other non-ferrous.
"With stocks at low levels and demand excellent health, metals prices settled above their historic average for some time yet", summarized Diego Hernandez. Paul Skinner, President of Rio Tinto, agrees. Commenting on China's industrial policy at the General Assembly of its society, the latter considered that the 11th five-year plan adopted by the authorities in Beijing was "sustainable support to the minerals and metals markets. Leigh Clifford, Executive Director, noted that China was alone "between 20 and 30 of global demand for raw materials". The former empire of the environment accounts for 33 of overall consumption of all steels and 22 of copper and aluminum. What guarantee other peaceful years in the extractive sector.
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