First all are not guaranteed in the same way

"Feed a ship with a jerrycan." The President of the French Banking Federation (FBF), Georges Pauget, does not seek to make illusion: after fifteen months of crisis, banks are under infusion of cash to finance the economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the States in turn ensuring the role of the attendant. In fact, despite the public rescue plans and the ECB injections, post-crisis prospects do not emerged. How the banks, which are currently financing with public support, convince investors to purchase their debt without collateral The jump is not obvious.

The first broadcast in the medium term of a European Bank with the support of the State demonstrated. Despite a high cost (120 basis points above the State rate, over 50 basis points above the CDS to 5 years in banks), the emission of Barclays EUR 3 billion provided by the British State not to is not well placed. The prices and the guarantee of the State are far from satisfactory wages. Investors prefer the liquidity of the shares of State themselves. The return of emissions on own name white credit banks is not for tomorrow.

Distortion that guarantees

Furthermore, the hierarchy in the palette of instruments of refinancing that can enable the banks after the crisis is likely to be upset. First, all are not guaranteed in the same way. "If the support of Swedish and Irish States benefits of mortgage-backed bonds, the Germany not activate its guarantee that in case of difficulty, said Stig Tornes Hansen, head analyst at Danske Bank." In addition, the current situation is not sustainable because senior debt with a State guarantee deals at higher than the "covered bonds" and without this safety margin levels. "Segregation and traditional investors as security for repayment of the debts of the banks pay could be questioned.

This addition distortions in the price of the guarantees of the States. The United Kingdom comes with a commission of 50 point basis over the CDS. In France, the banks benefit from costs, excluding the effect of base, more than half lower through the assets provided as collateral: 20 points of base over the CDS. Certainty, the cost of refinancing will be higher after the crisis and the privilege should be emissions guaranteed by assets.

On the "covered bonds", backed with real credits, "margins paid to investors should be lower than that before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers but not lose not their pre-crisis level, a period during which the banks could issue at the price of Euribor without margin," said an analyst.

While past emissions are processed between 50 and 10 basis points, the best levels of post-crisis could approach 20 points above the rate without risk. It may also depend on the States. In Sweden, where the effects of the plan are translated by a relaxation of the price, the compensation of the "covered bonds" lost 40 basis points to 60. Lastly, we must also rely on the distortions between State-owned banks or not access to liquidity. Will RBS or Lloyds TSB HBOS and Northern Rock, massively supported by public funds, have theoretically more accessible Gates than others, which will issue on their name.

In fine, at the end of support plans of States, "small banks will not ways to refinance without public security", said Stig Tornes Hansen. They are likely to be weakened by the privilege accorded to the big banks by customers for their deposits, which will deprive them a little more inexpensive resource. "Under the bankruptcy, it is expected to further banking consolidation", said a banker. One positive point, "deposits attracting deposits, major groups could mechanically rebalance their refinancing model and reduce their dependence on the markets". A return to soft sources.