She realizes now that this was not the case

According to Barack Obama, the economic situation begins to offer "glimmers of hope." It hit the bottom

No, the world economy has not affected the bottom. The figures for the fourth quarter of 2008 were catastrophic and we will still have at least one or two very negative quarters. There is too strong to be reversed in the short run dynamics. That being so, the measures taken for the application, the repair of the financial system and the return of confidence will eventually reverse the steam. Fiscal stimulus will make a difference. And monetary policy is extremely aggressive and will bear its fruit.

In the case of countries emerging, however, it will be harder because they face withdrawal of capital. This will cause problems of balance of considerable payments to some countries, including in Eastern Europe. The IMF can help but the problems are and we have a few difficult years ahead in the best case scenario.

Are stimulus sufficient

Think, to distinguish between growth rate and level of production. It is hoped that the growth rate again positive next year. But he must see that, even in this case, the gap between the level of production and the normal level, the so-called "output gap", will remain wide. Even in the best case scenario, it will take three to five years to close this gap. For this reason, that fiscal stimulus is warranted, both for its immediate effects and for the support it will in the coming years. From a theoretical point of view, it should be as much stimulus as possible, in the limit where it does not call into question the balanced budget medium-term, and therefore not concerned about the financial markets. It remains margins.

And in the case of the France

The France is a budgetary stimulus, but the real stimulus effort appears to be lower than the figure announced by the Government. Probably could increase it, in particular for 2010 and 2011, and must be thought about now. It takes time to put measures in place.

In General, European countries may not realize the size of the demand shock that this crisis has caused. November-December, Europe thought that it would largely avoid the crisis. She realizes now that this was not the case. The IMF, we have, by necessity, a global vision of the crisis. We receive data from 185 countries and they are certainly worrying. The decline in exports of 12 in the fourth quarter of 2008 has no historical precedent. It must act very strongly.

The crisis from the United States, is not legitimate that they support the effort

It may be what you think in Europe, but it is not US who will bear the European recovery! In General, Europe is less Keynesian than the US. The feeling that the fiscal policy works poorly and has perverse effects is stronger on the European side. Europe is concerned more the level of debt relative to GDP. The immediate problem, however, is to revive the economy and should do more in Europe.

The Federal Reserve has decided to buy US Treasury bonds. She monetizes debt. Is - this dangerous

For the time being, the financial system does not fulfil its role. It must be repaired, but in the best of cases, this will take time. In the meantime, it must be that someone be intermediation instead of failing banks: this is what makes the Fed by increasing the size of its balance sheet. By purchasing Treasury bonds, the Fed moves to the next step is to lower long-term interest rates. So far, the general feeling was that this type of operation would not have much effect on the rate. This is also what I thought. Then Britain was done on a large scale and this worked. Is - this dangerous Is - this bearer of inflation I have not too much concern about it. It will be time to reverse things. I would say even that we are not totally out of the hostel on the risks of deflation...

Should the ECB follow this path

It has already been much. Monetary policy is very courageous, it has significantly expanded its mode of intervention.

Plan Geithner banking rescue you think it's good

Since the beginning of the crisis, we have said to be both remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets and recapitalise them. This was not done immediately, and the interaction between the real economy crisis and the banking crisis worsened things. Result, the Bill is higher today than elle to would have been six months or a year. The part of the Geithner plan announced this week offers a plan to clean up balance sheets. Will private investors be willing to buy toxic assets Will banks be willing to assign the desired price It is too early to judge. In Europe, must be out toxic assets from the balance sheets. As long as this has not been done, we will be faced with a virtual paralysis of the banks. And more delay, more final addition increases.

Is the doubling of funds from the IMF to $ 500 billion acquired

The principle is accepted, the terms and conditions remain to be defined. We want to create a new window for loans from prequalified countries, who have behaved well in the past but who are suddenly faced with problems of balance of payments. They can use this facility without condition and obtain repayable loans over three to five years. We believe that this type of loan may play an important role, and will be very useful to some countries of Eastern Europe, but also Asia, Central and Latin America, which face a serious problem of withdrawal of private capital.