The kickoff will be given by Alcoa next week

Positive signs on the economy have multiplied in recent weeks, fueling optimism of stock. The long-awaited report on U.S. employment and the published indicators yesterday have not upset the spring mood. After a long Easter weekend, Wall Street - opened yesterday, in contrast to the major places of the old Continent - was well oriented on these statistics. The Dow Jones industrial average of leading industrial values index was approaching little by little the symbolic Cape of 11,000 points, at the closing (read the minutes of the meeting page 17). Now, the major indices are more than a few of their levels from before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, or even have exceeded them in the image of the DAX in Frankfurt. The S & P 500, in the United States, and the Stoxx 600, in Europe, are at their top since the end of September 2008.

Growth

Markets await now the results season for reinforcing their good conduct and able to reach new heights.

That the wave of publications approach, the correlation between stock market performance and increases the "momentum of profits", according to calculations by PrimeView. The kick-off will be given by Alcoa, next week.

Consensus predicts growth of 36 of the profits of companies in the S & P 500 index in the first quarter (to nearly 160 billion dollars in aggregate weighted), according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter should mark the second consecutive rise in profits, after nine quarters of decline. Throughout the year 2010, the benefits should rebound by 27.

Investors are much interested in how the results are generated. Analysts anticipate an improvement in earnings of 10. Already, the fourth quarter of 2009 had recorded a return of the growth of the turnover figures for the first time since mid-2008 (on the basis of the consensus).

On the macroeconomic front, investors will continue to be very attentive to the signs of confirmation of the growth and indications for monetary policy. They scruteront with interest the minutes (the report) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) today. This side of the Atlantic, the meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will be the organ of the week points.

Many experts are confident on the pursuit of increased indices. Groupama AM expects growth of 5 to 10 per cent by June, with a CAC 40 around 4,200 points, despite the detachments of dividends. "It reviews redemptions of shares of large companies and the return of the mergers and acquisitions, which constitutes support for the market, despite low volumes, said Roman Boscher, Director of the management of Groupama AM." "In addition, there are positive flows on the shares: almost $ 40 billion out monthly monetary funds."

If progress is confirmed, the European markets slightly down since the beginning of the year, could close the gap with the US places. The decline of the euro, favourable to exporting values, and the easing of fears about sovereign debt argue for this scenario. And especially since the consensus of the profits on twelve months and the dividend yield is slightly higher in Europe. Conversely, valorisation (in ratio price/earnings) displays a haircut of approximately 10.

However, air holes are still expected in the year, while a change in monetary policy profile in the United States. Futures indicate a probability of more than 60 for a movement in November, although many economists do not see the before 2011. Groupama AM feared as a second half almost sluggish on scholarships. Morgan Stanley remains cautious on a horizon of three to six months, showing that European markets are shrinking by 12 on average over 139 days on the first rate hike to the EDF following a recession.