The last g20 was not necessarily the height

Global economy seeks desperately growth engine. Even though yesterday was less chahutée than the previous on stock exchanges, the atmosphere significantly deteriorated, these days, investors. There is a financial component in this phenomenon: the arrival term, today a loan of one year of the European Central Bank, gave the interbank market under high tension, almost Recalling the worst moments of the fall of 2008.

But this climate of excitement is itself powered by the new concerns of economists. They are indeed more and more many to wonder about the strength of the current recovery, with different statistics show a stable air hole. The spectrum of the "double dip", this relapse, again appeared in scores of experts. Even if it is still officially regarded as little likely, it is more excluded.

What seems more and more clear, is that a slower recovery is underway. Everywhere, and so the moment Impressionist figures disappoint. In the United States, unemployment flows, while the consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply in June. Same tone to the Japan, where unemployment continued its progress in a context of deceleration of industrial production and consumption of households.

The economic European area, more diverse, sends more conflicting messages. But beyond some good news on the front of the German unemployment (read below), the trend is not good. Monday, the Conference Board, a us research organization, whose studies of conditions refer thus revealed that its index for the euro area had experienced a decline in may, for the first time since more than a year. "The rebound may have reached a peak", and note Jean-Claude Manini, Economist of the Conference Board Europe. Finally, the same Conference Board announced Tuesday, a revision to a decline in its index for China, as a result of an error. While remaining in positive territory, the index seems to translate a fall in morale of Chinese consumers with less good prospects for exports.

Concerns about China

It is perhaps this last point which worries the most. It also shook Asian awards. Because it is a reminder that Chinese growth, intended to make the dynamic world, is itself strongly related to exports, and so at the request of countries developed. Today, "notes that much of the growth of the emerging great the last few months, was in fact to cyclical and exogenous elements", notes Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit. These are essentially the restocking of enterprises and stimulus plans from the world trade. Both relate to their end. Europe, summoned by markets put order in its accounts, to opt for a sometimes violent austerity (particularly in the United Kingdom). Similarly, we see bad American, indebted, households become durable engines of global demand.

Produce, Yes, but for whom Again, it begins on the limits of the model "to the German". How far can claim benefit from rebound in world trade when it suffers oneself of internal consumption in Bern Chris Williamson, "the coordination of fiscal stimulus had a very positive effect on growth, can fear that austerity policies synchronizing the contrary". More than ever, the world economy needs confidence. The last g-20 was not necessarily the height.