Previously it had increased more than 300

The optimism was rigorous Friday on Western stock exchanges before the adoption of the Paulson plan. Forgotten umpteenth diving from the previous day. Forgotten the risk of recession in the so-called real economy that would specify each day more. Also forgotten exceptional tensions still ravaging currency and short-term credit markets. Forgotten finally the problem of the debt even then that the Bill of the financial crisis will be heavy and will weigh lastingly accounts therefore on taxpayers, powerful Western States. Had only one thing: the third version of the backup plan would be, and then was actually approved by the House of representatives. Two cyclical figures of the day were read in the light of this desire to go beyond the gloom.

US non-farm sector was destroyed 159.000 jobs in September, the largest decline for five years and a half The job market deteriorates rapidly, including in services that had rather resilient so far We prefer to focus on unemployment, remained at the level of the month of August. "6.1 Per cent unemployment means in my eyes one thing: from the point of view of equity markets, consumers are not as soon as the market leaders." The key is the stabilization of the financial sector. "These are financial which will give the direction of market shares," sums up Christopher Low, Chief Economist at FTN Financial. The ISM services companies purchasing directors, index slipped 50.6 points in August to 50.2 last month is that it welcomed its relatively good holding to the average forecast of Wall Street economists (50 points). Several experts have focused on the fact that above the bar of 50 points, this sector which represents three quarters of the US economy is still expanding.

No sector saved

But this breath of fresh air that scholarships are offered Friday has not survived the go-ahead of the representatives to the plan. The negative factors neglected earlier returned suddenly on the front of the stage. Thus, the endgame, the Dow Jones index still dropped 157 points. Previously, it had increased more than 300. It has thus entered its worst week since July 2002. The high price volatility is not prepared to transfer the star. The week just past well demonstrated, with a succession furious violent shocks upward and downward. "Shares will cross phases of turbulence in the short term: new relapse of the financial crisis, with backdrop of unfavourable macroeconomic news flow", summarizes the experts at Natixis. The capitulation of the markets, guarantee of recovery in these circumstances, probably not even took place. "The & S P 500 is still 10 / 15 of its traditional levels of correction since the high points of the previous bull ring", notes Jean Danjou, strategist at Oddo Securities.

More no segment of the rating is immune to these erratic movements. Producers of consumer products will have to pass under the fork admit defeat of an increasingly weakened labour market. Producers of capital goods, products of energy and mineral resources to deal with the adverse consequences of the recession to the doors of the most developed countries. Real estate saw his way of the cross. And the financial, harshly since more than a year, perhaps did not cease book bad surprises to their shareholders. "The market should remain particularly adverse to risk, no attention to the theoretical valuation or to historical averages (currently, we are 30 below of ranges of recovery observed in a situation of prérécession)", stressed in Natixis. How long will it last No one can predict it with certainty. On the stock market, the answer will come as always of the evolution of the profits of listed companies. The most intense period of the publication of accounts in the third quarter approaches. For the time being, only those financial firms are heavily under water. Apart from these, analysts anticipate a decrease in the S & P 500 profits for the producers of consumer goods and telecommunications. The other segments of Wall Street will continue to grow, while idling. Will they find their momentum, need that interest rates fall and, especially, that banks resume to fuel the business credit under conditions and in standard proportions. This is hardly news...